Währungsfusionen am Beispiel der Eurozone : Anfänglicher Optimismus verwandelt sich in Euroskepsis
Einerseits beleuchtet der Beitrag die Entwicklung hin zur Europäischen Währungsunion (EWU). Es werden sowohl die Hoffnungen, die mit der gemeinsamen Währung verbunden waren, aufgezeigt als auch Konstruktionsfehler der EWU dargestellt. Andererseits geben die Autoren aber auch einen Ausblick auf mögliche Entwicklungen in der Zukunft.
The European Monetary Union
(EMU) currently finds itself in its
deepest crisis. The general confidence
in this ambitious European
integration project which was
apparent in the run-up to the EMU
has now given way to considerable
skepticism. While the movement towards
EMU started after the end of
World War II, this paper provides an
economic assessment of these developments.
However, one has to keep
in mind that the process of European
integration is not exclusively driven
by economic factors.
The foundation of EMU was
inspired by the so-called theory of
optimum currency areas and political
authorities put a system in place
which led to the formulation of
four convergence criteria. However,
regarding these criteria, several mistakes
were made which at the very
least contributed to the prevailing
crisis. In particular, the relevance of
sovereign debt and national budgets
were benignly neglected. Furthermore,
planned sanctions for violations
have not been imposed.
Currently, debt seems to be getting
out of hand and the European
Central Bank (ECB) remains the last
authority which is able to act. This
generates additional problems. While
the measures taken by the ECB are
legally questionable, it generates
political dependencies.
For the future, several scenarios are
possible. The first possibility is that
some countries might secede from
the EMU, which will lead to problems
both for the seceding country
and also for the remaining countries
of the EMU. As a second option,
further steps of integration will have
to be made, especially fiscal integration.
Right now, it seems as if the
second possibility is the preferred
option.