Ökonomie und Unsicherheit nach der Finanzmarktkrise : Ein Essay

Das Papier zeigt, wie die Unsicherheit seit der großen Rezession viel Einfluss auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung gewonnen hat. Auf der einen Seite gab es eine intellektuelle Rückbesinnung auf die Theorien von John Maynard Keynes und Hyman Minsky. Andererseits sind neue Forschungsstränge entstanden um mit der Ungewissheit umzugehen, wie die Agent Based Models (ABM).
The paper shows how uncertainty gained much influence in economic sciences since the Great Recession. On the one hand, there was an intellectual come-back of the theories of John Maynard Keynes and Hyman Minsky. On the other hand, new strands of research have emerged to deal with uncertainty. Among the most prominent are Agent Based Models (ABM). In this line of research, heterogeneous behavior of market agents creates complexity and with that uncertainty. People form their expectations about future economic events according to differing methods. They range from very complex forecasting processes to simple rules of thumb. The interaction between both mechanisms, present at the same time, creates complex models that tend to show instabilities. In other words, with these models the occurrence of crises can be explained. Another new line of research reflects forecasting methods. Many new ways to make forecasts have been explored. Variable selection follows the objective to improve forecasts rather than fulfilling restrictions from theory.
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