Ein Markt für morgen? : Hypothesen und Prognosen zur Elektromobilität

In unsere Zukunft mit Elektroautos blickt Ferdinand Dudenhöffer. Er definiert die verschiedenen Arten von Elektroautos, diskutiert Angebot, Nachfrage sowie Produktion und entwirft ein Marktszenario für Elektrofahrzeuge.

E-Mobility is a new phenomenon governed by its own market rules, drawn from new experiences in consumer behavior. Today, the heart of e-mobility is defined by battery-powered electric vehicles. This raises issues about acceptable driving distances, a park and plug infrastructure, higher car prices and charging time frames for electricity. Together, this results in a new usage of cars. Central to the use of battery-powered electric cars are car sharing and car rental systems in megacities like Shanghai or Paris. Thus there exists a smaller demand for pure battery-powered electric vehicles than is often assumed. The most important part of e-mobility appears to be the full hybrid and plug-in hybrid world. These cars seem to combine two worlds. On the one hand, the customers experience with conventional cars, and on the other hand, the advantages of new technology. This world is developing rapidly, as product-planning strategies of carmakers show. To put this in numbers: in a market scenario we derived a demand for 4.4 million battery-powered electric cars sales around the year 2025, whereas plugin hybrids will count for 17.5 million vehicles sales in 2025 and hybrid cars for 34.2 million sales. To put it in perspective, we are moving into a new world, but not as quickly as is sometimes assumed.

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