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Evacuation planning under selfish evacuation routing

Seekircher, Kerstin

In case of an evacuation a large number of evacuees must be routed through a street network to let them leave the endangered area and reach safe places. In such a situation a lot of evacuees use the street network in a short time span and so the network capacity will be insufficient. With an evacuation plan the traffic could be guided through the network for a better use of network capacity. But to implement the solution planned by a central decision maker, optimal routes must be communicated to all network users, which lead to a high communication effort. Furthermore, it must be ensured that the evacuees take the given routes. But a lot of people do not follow the instructions from authorities in a panic situation. They do what they assume is best for themselves. Such selfish behaviour leads to a suboptimal distribution of traffic and results in congestion. In this thesis we present a concept to guide the evacuees through the network without determining optimal routes for all network users. With the blockage of street sections we force the evacuees to use other routes than the preferred ones but give them the possibility to choose their routes on their own. The thesis presents different mathematical model formulations and heuristic for the described problem. In a comprehensive computational study, with real world examples, the functionality of the presented concept and methods are tested.

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Seekircher, Kerstin: Evacuation planning under selfish evacuation routing. 2017.

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