Development of a modified dynamic energy and greenhouse gas reduction planning approach through the case of Indian power sector

Energy and Environmental Analysis is a method to evaluate utility of any energy system by finding the requirement of energy and resulting emissions through all the materials and processes used to build and use any system over its entire life and also to demolish it at the end of life. Relationship between the cumulative energy demand and cumulative emissions with energy output from the system establishes indicators for its utility in terms "Energy Yield Ratio" and "Emission Coefficient". Energy and Environmental Planning is a macroscopic exercise used for conducting futuristic studies through dynamic assessment of the defined reference energy system comprising of many alternatives and constraints. It is done to find the optimum solution for certain objective function often system cost minimization through meeting system requirements such as the energy demand. To establish link between these two approaches, a new methodology has been formulated in this work. It has been done through linking the Cumulative Energy Demand (a system specific, energy analysis parameter of static nature), and the overall energy demand which is a dynamic parameter governed by its rate of growth. With the help of this new method, Cumulative Energy Demand of any system acts as a barrier for growth as it takes away energy from the overall energy pool. The value of maximum growth obtained through equilibrium equations has been exogenously supplied to the energy planning tool and thus the link between the two different approaches has been established. This work demonstrates the method for each of the above approaches separately and then jointly, involving various technologies for power generation. A much widely used energy planning software MARKAL (MARket ALlocation), has been used for carrying out planning related analysis which treats the defined Reference Energy System as a dynamic bottom-up problem and finds the objective function through obtaining a partial equilibrium at all intermediate stages. The above mentioned methodology has been validated through the analysis of Indian power sector. There has been an unsatisfactory growth in this sector during past few years which has resulted into increase in the shortage of power supply. Besides, pressure for controlling the emission of greenhouse gases is increasing day by day. Therefore, model of the Indian power sector has been developed and several scenarios have been made to cover various major possibilities for the future. Effects of introduction of CO2 taxes at different rates have also been modeled through the developed approach to find the consequential change in the structure of power sector and to assess the potential for reduction in emissions. Results obtained indicate that during the period up to the year 2025, there exists a possibility of reducing carbon dioxide emissions up to about 25%. The system will incur about 100 to 140 rupees (approximately 2.5 to 3.5 Euro) for reduction of each ton of carbon dioxide depending upon the target and hence decided emission tax rates. These costs are much less as compared to the rates found for other countries like Germany, as the renewable energy based power generation is relatively much cheaper in India. It has also been found that it would be better to pay more attention towards large hydro and wind power as they tend to be more economic in almost all scenarios. There also exists a possibility for natural gas based power plants to replace coal based plants but at present Pressurized Fluidized Bed Combustion based coal power plants would be better. As one of the results it is also inferred that advanced technologies like Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle based coal power plants, oil based power plants and photovoltaic power plants are not competitive enough with their present cost and performance criteria, in any of the considered scenarios.


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