Kaj trenutno vemo o prihodnjem razvoju livarske industrije v Evropi?

The current situation in the world forces us to ask ourselves how  reliable statements about future economic and social developments are  possible. This question must be asked time and again, similarly as they are at scientific problems, where the facts are independent of other  opinions.  The  statements  about  economic  future  and  social  developments  should not  be  characterized  by  the  fact  that  they  are  shaped  by  people,  companies,  political and a multitude of other opinion-forming institutions that change social systems through their  ideas. These  may  be  unconscious  changes,  but  as  a  rule,  they  are  changes  to  be initiated consciously and purposefully, e.g., through a correspondingly intensive advertising campaign. This connection between thinking and reality in the economy leads to the fact that  ‘markets  are  inherently  unstable’  [1],  and  therefore,  statements  are  only  possible with a certain degree of uncertainty. A particularly topical example of markets developing differently than intended by those in positions of responsibility in politics and business is the  development  of  electromobility  in  Germany,  with  catastrophic  consequences  for  the automotive industry and important supplier industries. Even if we recognize that markets are unstable and can sometimes develop very quickly and in an almost unforeseeable way, it  is  interesting  to  consider  whether  facts  can  be  identified  that,  despite  the  uncertainty, provide a certain sense of future possible developments.

Zaradi trenutnih razmer v svetu se moramo vprašati, kako zanesljive so dejansko izjave o prihodnjem gospodarskem in družbenem razvoju. To vprašanje si je treba vedno znova zastavljati, pri tem pa upoštevati, za razliko od znanstvenih problemov, kjer so dejstva neodvisna od z njimi povezanih izjav, da gospodarski razvoj temelji na odločitvah ljudi, podjetij, političnih in številnih drugih institucij, ki oblikujejo mnenja in s svojimi idejami spreminjajo družbene sisteme. Pri tem gre lahko za nezavedne spremembe, ki pa jih je treba obravnavati zavestno in načrtno, npr. z ustrezno intenzivno oglaševalsko kampanjo. Ta povezava med razmišljanjem in dejanskim stanjem v gospodarstvu vodi do dejstva, da so »trgi po svoji naravi nestabilni« [1], zato je treba izjave jemati z določeno stopnjo negotovosti. Posebej aktualen primer razvoja trgov, ki se odvija drugače, kot so si zamislili odgovorni ljudje v politiki in gospodarstvu, je razvoj elektromobilnosti v Nemčiji, ki ima katastrofalne posledice za avtomobilsko industrijo in pomembne dobaviteljske panoge. Čeprav se zavedamo, da so trgi nestabilni in da se lahko včasih razvijajo zelo hitro in na skoraj nepredvidljiv način, je zanimivo razmisliti, ali je mogoče opredeliti dejstva, ki kljub negotovosti dajejo določen vpogled v možni prihodnji razvoj.

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