Kaj trenutno vemo o prihodnjem razvoju livarske industrije v Evropi?
The current situation in the world forces us to ask ourselves how reliable statements about future economic and social developments are possible. This question must be asked time and again, similarly as they are at scientific problems, where the facts are independent of other opinions. The statements about economic future and social developments should not be characterized by the fact that they are shaped by people, companies, political and a multitude of other opinion-forming institutions that change social systems through their ideas. These may be unconscious changes, but as a rule, they are changes to be initiated consciously and purposefully, e.g., through a correspondingly intensive advertising campaign. This connection between thinking and reality in the economy leads to the fact that ‘markets are inherently unstable’ [1], and therefore, statements are only possible with a certain degree of uncertainty. A particularly topical example of markets developing differently than intended by those in positions of responsibility in politics and business is the development of electromobility in Germany, with catastrophic consequences for the automotive industry and important supplier industries. Even if we recognize that markets are unstable and can sometimes develop very quickly and in an almost unforeseeable way, it is interesting to consider whether facts can be identified that, despite the uncertainty, provide a certain sense of future possible developments.
Zaradi trenutnih razmer v svetu se moramo vprašati, kako zanesljive so dejansko izjave o prihodnjem gospodarskem in družbenem razvoju. To vprašanje si je treba vedno znova zastavljati, pri tem pa upoštevati, za razliko od znanstvenih problemov, kjer so dejstva neodvisna od z njimi povezanih izjav, da gospodarski razvoj temelji na odločitvah ljudi, podjetij, političnih in številnih drugih institucij, ki oblikujejo mnenja in s svojimi idejami spreminjajo družbene sisteme. Pri tem gre lahko za nezavedne spremembe, ki pa jih je treba obravnavati zavestno in načrtno, npr. z ustrezno intenzivno oglaševalsko kampanjo. Ta povezava med razmišljanjem in dejanskim stanjem v gospodarstvu vodi do dejstva, da so »trgi po svoji naravi nestabilni« [1], zato je treba izjave jemati z določeno stopnjo negotovosti. Posebej aktualen primer razvoja trgov, ki se odvija drugače, kot so si zamislili odgovorni ljudje v politiki in gospodarstvu, je razvoj elektromobilnosti v Nemčiji, ki ima katastrofalne posledice za avtomobilsko industrijo in pomembne dobaviteljske panoge. Čeprav se zavedamo, da so trgi nestabilni in da se lahko včasih razvijajo zelo hitro in na skoraj nepredvidljiv način, je zanimivo razmisliti, ali je mogoče opredeliti dejstva, ki kljub negotovosti dajejo določen vpogled v možni prihodnji razvoj.