Modeling Intraday Markets under the New Advances of the Cross-Border Intraday Project (XBID) : Evidence from the German Intraday Market
The intraday cross-border project (XBID) allows intraday market participants to trade based on a shared order book independent of countries or local energy exchanges. This theoretically leads to an efficient allocation of cross-border capacities and ensures maximum market liquidity across European intraday markets. If this postulation holds, the technical implementation of XBID might mark a regime switch in any intraday price series. We present a regression-based model for intraday markets with a particular focus on the German European Power Exchange (EPEX) intraday market and evaluate if the introduction of XBID influence prices, volume or volatility. We analyze partial volume-weighted average prices and standard deviations as well as cross-border volumes at different trading times. We are able to falsify our initial hypothesis assuming a measurable influence of changes caused by XBID. Thus, this paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on appropriate modeling of intraday markets and demonstrates that XBID does not necessarily need to be included in any model.