PT Unknown
AU Duttle, K
   Shichijo, T
TI Default or Reactance: Identity Priming Effects on Overconfidence in Germany and Japan
SE Working Papers on East Asian Studies
PY 2015
VL 103
DI 10.17185/duepublico/41058
LA en
DE Overconfidence; interval estimates; identity priming; culture; stereotype effect
AB This experimental study measures three types of overconfidence in the decision behavior of participants
from Germany and Japan. In the first stage of the experiment subjects completed a Raven Progressive
Matrices test and subsequently assessed their test performance in absolute and relative
terms. During the second stage subjects provided probability forecasts by confidence intervals to artificially
generated price paths. Furthermore subjects’ better-than-average bias was assessed during a
post-experimental questionnaire. We find that monetary incentives as a reason to honestly self-evaluate
reduce cultural differences in overplacement and in overestimation of own performance. Overprecision
in probability judgment accuracy on the other hand significantly differed across ethnical
groups. To analyze national identity priming effects on overconfidence, a pre-experimental questionnaire
made this identity salient to a randomly selected treatment group. Previous studies found that
primes of certain identities can trigger behavior that is consistent with the stereotypes associated
with that identity, but can also cause psychological reactance leading to counter-stereotypical behavior.
We find that in a setting where there are no incentives to provide honest performance self-evaluations
the identity prime reinforces behavior consistent with a default strategy which helps adapting
to social norms. In incentivized decisions on the other hand the prime causes counter-stereotypical
self-perception. Reasons for this phenomenon are discussed.
ER