Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Miller, Grant Author-Name-First: Grant Author-Name-Last: Miller Author-Name: de Paula, Áureo Author-Name-First: Áureo Author-Name-Last: de Paula Author-Name: Valente, Christine Author-Name-First: Christine Author-Name-Last: Valente Title: Subjective Expectations and Demands for Contraception Abstract: One quarter of married, fertile‐age women in Sub‐Saharan Africa report not wanting a pregnancy and yet do not use contraceptives. To study this issue, we collect detailed data on women’s subjective probabilistic beliefs and estimate a structural model of contraceptive choices. Our results indicate that costly interventions like eliminating supply constraints would only modestly increase contraceptive use. Alternatively, increasing partners’ approval of methods, aligning partners’ fertility preferences with women’s beliefs about pregnancy risk absent contraception have the potential to increase use considerably. Results from a before/after experiment testing this last finding are highly consistent with the structural estimates. Keywords: Contraception, Probabilistic Beliefs, Mozambique Creation-Date: 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.17185/duepublico/73328 File-URL: https://duepublico2.uni-due.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/duepublico_derivate_00073130/CINCH_Series_2020_03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 1541739 Handle: RePEc:ajt:wcinch:73328